Customers and alternatives
Who needs the outcome, who decides and which solutions already exist? We examine the relevant target market and potential routes to customers.
PHASE 03 / 05 · Assess market potential
Market Potential Analysis for a Product Idea
Make a decision using sources, competitors and numbers.
No idea yet? Start with phase 1Phases · Swipe ↔
WHAT HAPPENS IN PHASE 03
Is your product idea worth pursuing?
We assess who your idea serves, which alternatives already exist and how it could benefit your business. The assessment uses public sources and the business model that fits your selected idea.
US$49 incl. VATFinal price including VAT
YOUR RESULT
Your market report and PDF
- Your market report online and as a PDF
- Target customers, competitors and potential differentiation, with sources
- Economic scenarios, assumptions, findings and open questions
A clearer basis for your decision.
See what supports your idea, what its value depends on and where evidence is still missing.
Value for your business
A free offer, an addition to an existing service and a paid product each need a different business rationale. We assess the selected model and consider alternatives only when relevant.
Economics with explicit assumptions
How do costs compare with potential revenue or savings? Scenarios show the conditions under which the idea could be worthwhile. Missing figures remain visible.
Findings for your open questions
Assumptions from idea discovery carry into the assessment. You see what the research supports, what weighs against the idea and what it cannot answer.
Established methods, applied to your idea
Our approach combines target-market and competitor analysis, business-model assessment, SWOT, scenarios and economic calculations. Research findings are checked against the idea’s open assumptions.
Market signals are not market validation.
Public research provides a reasoned assessment. It does not replace customer interviews, pilot sales or willingness-to-pay tests. Scenarios are not revenue forecasts; assumptions that cannot be tested remain open.
You decide whether it becomes an app.
Use the report to pursue, narrow or set aside the idea. If you want to proceed, you commission app development separately. Development does not start automatically.
Explore app development →ONE CONTINUOUS EXAMPLE
From painting business to colour advisor
See the result of each phase, from the website analysis to a finished social post draft.
Potential with conditions
Two models are assessed: a free colour planner for existing customers and a paid, professionally reviewed summary for existing and new customers. The benefits are not yet measured.
Earlier example report from 8 October 2026. It compares several usage models for this particular case. New assessments start with the selected idea’s business model; structure and scope may differ.
View the full example
MARKET ASSESSMENT · COLOUR VARIANT PLANNERMarket assessment as US Letter PDF
Pilot report on the selected idea with researched sources and clearly labelled assumptions.
Illustrative calculation for a German business in EUR using net business costs. Current service prices include VAT; English checkout is billed in US dollars.
Market assessment as US Letter PDF
Open PDF preview ↗Business potential at a glance
Digital colour variant planner
20 sales modelled; at least 18 needed to break even.
01 · Customer benefit
Not yet quantifiable
per customer / year
Data missing
Missing: value per unit.
02 · Market potential
100
reachable prospects in year one
Assumed
At 20% assumed conversion this implies 20 sales in year one.
03 · Competition & price
149.00 €
per sale
Assumed
The proposed net price pays for bounded expert preparation; verified digital alternatives cost €0.
04 · Contribution margin
81.50 €
per sale
Calculated · assumptions
149.00 € net revenue minus 67.50 € variable costs leaves 81.50 € to cover fixed costs.
05 · Break-even
at least 18
sales in year one
Calculated · assumptions
20 sales modelled; at least 18 needed to break even.
06 · Annual result & assessment
+231.67 €
year 1 · before tax
Economic surplus
Under the modelled assumptions, 231.67 € economic surplus remains in year one.
Understand the figures. Assess the decision.
01Customer benefit
What the customer receives: Deliver one prepared room image, three comparable variants, an annotated favourite and one revision. Prepared alternatives may reduce decision effort, but there is no defensible cash value for private time or evidence of avoided repainting.
Calculation: Missing: value per unit.
Interpretation: Buyer benefit cannot responsibly be monetised here. Purchase price is not buyer benefit; private time savings and avoided repainting remain unquantified.
No measured metric evidenced; inputs remain assumptions.
02Market potential
Audience & access: Residents and Czeranski colour advisers. (Assumption.) Painting customers buying prepared choices. (Assumption.) Serve Berlin-area painting buyers through consultations, website enquiries and social content. (Assumption.) Count unique qualified offers through consultations, website enquiries and social content in year one; housing stock is excluded.
Calculation: 100 prospects × 20 % = 20 sales (rounded down).
Basis & limitation: Planning range of roughly 3–15 qualified offers monthly in Berlin and surroundings, combining existing and new customers. No traffic or customer counts are known; social content guarantees none. Free alternatives justify cautious uptake. The upper case assumes a clearly understood expert deliverable; these are scenario purchase rates, not observed conversions. Reachable prospects are not evidenced buyers.
03Competition & price
Compared offerings: Caparol Spectrum: Basic and Pro cost €0; Pro requires registration. It already offers masks, saved projects and Pro export. Alpina Farbraum: The simulator and app cost €0. It offers photo recolouring, favourites and sharing. Brillux colour service: The expert-service tariff is not published. Experts deliver concepts, visualisations and agreed revisions.
Own price: 149.00 € per sale. Billing unit: One-room decision pack. One-off net price for one prepared room, three alternatives and one revision. This is a service-value hypothesis, not a verified paid market benchmark; digital price anchors are free.
Interpretation: The proposed net price pays for bounded expert preparation; verified digital alternatives cost €0. A contractor-ready decision record is a possible gap, not proven exclusive functionality. Scope and term must be comparable. Asking prices do not prove willingness to pay for this offering.
04Contribution margin
Calculation: 149.00 € − (1.5 h × 45.00 € + 0.00 €) = 81.50 €.
Cost basis: Includes Czeranski's image preparation, colour selection and one review in year one. Complexity drives the range. It excludes technical support already included in standard operation. Illustrative full labour cost for Czeranski's professional colour preparation only. No wage or staffing records are available. External development and technical support are excluded. Assume invoice payment and digital delivery without shipping, paid AI or messaging. No product-specific variable expenditure is necessary within this scope.
Interpretation: Work time is valued economically. Fees, commissions and usage-based technology belong in variable costs, without double counting.
05Break-even
First-year costs: 41.18 € assessment + 167.23 € development + 796.68 € operation + 393.24 € social media + 0.00 € other fixed costs. Setup costs are counted once in full in year one.
Calculation: 1,398.33 € ÷ 81.50 € = 18 sales (rounded up).
Interpretation: Additional owner effort has not been quantified. Costs and break-even are lower bounds; the result is before that deduction. The threshold covers year one; it does not specify a payback date.
06Annual result & assessment
Calculation: 20 × 81.50 € − 1,398.33 € = 231.67 €.
Key conditions: Paid pricing must cover preparation without relying on a later painting sale. (Assumption.) Free access must avoid an unlimited professional preparation commitment. (Assumption.) Assumed reach and uptake must not be treated as established sales capacity.
Interpretation: Additional owner effort has not been quantified. Costs and break-even are lower bounds; the result is before that deduction. Economic result before tax; not equivalent to cash requirements.
| Scenario | sales | Price / unit | Total effort | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4 | 99.00 € | ≥ 10 h | -1,602.33 € |
| Base | 20 | 149.00 € | ≥ 30 h | +231.67 € |
| Favourable | 63 | 199.00 € | ≥ 63 h | +8,933.67 € |
Sources and context
- Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes in Berlin und Brandenburg
Context: Audience, market and access
- Malerbetrieb Czeranski – Maler & Wohnung streichen zum fairen Festpreis
Context: Audience, market and access · Cost and benefit assumptions · Cost basis · Assessment and conditions
- Spectrum-Familie: Gestaltungsideen online visualisieren
Context: Audience, market and access · Offerings, scope and prices · Cost and benefit assumptions · Cost basis · Assessment and conditions
- Alpina Farbraum – Alpina Farben
Context: Audience, market and access · Offerings, scope and prices · Cost and benefit assumptions · Cost basis · Assessment and conditions
- www.brillux.de
Context: Offerings, scope and prices
Example based on public information and a website analysis from 8 October 2026. Demand estimates and future services are labelled as assumptions or drafts.